ORBITRISK / RESEARCH TERMINAL
Satellite conjunction
risk modeling.
Public orbital elements, SGP4 propagation, and geometric close-approach screening. Collision probability is reserved for an explicitly synthetic uncertainty experiment.
LAUNCH SIMULATOR ↓- Catalog objects
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- Reference frame
- TEME inertial
- Snapshot epoch
- Loading snapshot
LIVE PROPAGATION VIEW
Public-TLE orbital simulator
Orbits are propagated with SGP4 from the loaded CelesTrak snapshot. Visual marker size is exaggerated.
REAL-DATA SCREEN
Geometric conjunction candidates
24-hour screen at 1,000 km; candidates are refined around a 10-minute grid. Not operational alerts.
No events crossed this screen threshold in the current public-TLE window. That is a valid screening result, not an absence of orbital risk.
SYNTHETIC UNCERTAINTY LAB
Illustrative collision probability
Controlled 2-D encounter-plane experiment only. These assumptions are not inferred from the TLE catalog or real conjunctions.
- MONTE CARLO
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- ANALYTICAL CHECK
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- MODEL
- Isotropic Gaussian encounter plane
METHODOLOGY / LIMITATIONS
Transparent about what public orbital data can support.
Source. CelesTrak’s credential-free Stations TLE catalog is preserved with a retrieval timestamp and SHA-256. Records retain NORAD ID, epoch, inclination, eccentricity, and mean motion.
Propagation. SGP4 returns position and velocity in the TEME inertial frame, in kilometers and km/s. No raw SGP4 position is presented as Earth-fixed.
Screening. A coarse pairwise grid identifies candidate encounters; bounded numerical minimization refines TCA, miss distance, and relative velocity.
Limitation. Public TLEs do not include operational covariance. OrbitRisk provides no real collision probability or warning capability.